There are no guarantees that pollsters’ troubles in recent elections and popular skepticism about their dependability will be alleviated anytime soon.
Articles on Polling
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The defense minister’s firing was the catalyst, but polling suggests Ukrainians are rallying around a broader fight for freedoms and against corruption.
The UK leader’s resignation speaks to the challenges facing centre-left parties as they struggle to hold together increasingly diverse voters.
A statewide survey finds majorities in farm country at odds with the deportation push reshaping their workforce.
Most Trump supporters remain in his camp, but some independents, young people and Black Americans who voted for the president in 2024 would not do so again in an election do-over.
It’s not the byelection win that matters but the scale of the swing to Zack Polanski’s party.
Polls indicate majority support for abortion rights in most states, but laws differ greatly between places that uphold such rights and those that ban the procedure.
Polls have the combined primary vote for Labor and the Greens dropping. But there’s no sign of a boost for the Coalition after its leadership change.
Special election results have anticipated recent midterm outcomes. With Democrats now overperforming, that could spell trouble for the GOP in 2026.
Voters can expect a lot of political polling in the lead-up to NZ’s general election in November. It’s important to know what the numbers can and can’t reveal.
Voters tend to think about prime ministers less than we might assume when elections roll around.
However you cut it, the big parties have lost significant ground to Reform.
Well-known flaws in conventional polling methods may be creating the incorrect perception that many Americans think political violence is justified.
The rising popularity of Nigel Farage’s party is an unprecedented threat to the major parties.
Donald Trump has lost popularity in the past few months – but how much is his voting base being maintained by media support?
The Liberals had been poised for a heavy defeat – before the election of Donald Trump across the border.
The Greens will be defending a record four lower house seats at the election. Here are their chances in another five seats they are targeting across the country.
Kos Samaras, a director of the political consultancy firm Redbridge and a former Labor Party official, joins to talk about the polls and the parties prospects.
Pollsters’ credibility is constantly at stake. If the industry collectively misses the mark, public trust erodes, and confidence in the system itself is called into question.
Democrats’ surprise at the results of the 2024 presidential election is partly a result of pollsters’ inaccuracies and partly of partisan filter bubbles.
Top contributors
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research
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Honorary Professor, University of Sydney
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Director, La Trobe Centre for Global Security, and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University
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Professor of Political Communication; Director CAJ, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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Professor of Political Science, University of Richmond