There are no guarantees that pollsters’ troubles in recent elections and popular skepticism about their dependability will be alleviated anytime soon.
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Wealthsimple is launching a CIRO-approved prediction markets app soon. The evidence suggests most traders lose money, and the products look a lot like gambling.
The rapidly growing popularity of prediction markets is sparking worries about the markets’ effects on US politics, where campaign staff has bet on its candidate’s electoral performance.
For over a century, baseball rejected gambling to preserve the game’s integrity. Now, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred says embracing gambling will do the same.
While media outlets are signing deals with Polymarket and Kalshi for their insights into the wisdom of crowds, gamblers are pouncing on opportunities to wager on geopolitics and celebrity weddings.
Many Polymarket users won huge sums by correctly predicting when the US would strike Iran. Welcome to the gamification of information warfare.
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Professor of International Law and Security, UNSW
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