Hezbollah faces an uncertain future as the Lebanese public becomes disillusioned with it. Here are four scenarios for what the group could do next.
Articles on Israel-Hezbollah
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In past agreements, there appeared to be a tacit understanding between Hezbollah and Israel that conflict would eventually resume.
Israel has long sought to gain a military advantage by degrading its adversaries’ military capabilities outside of times of direct conflict.
The Israeli prime minister faces an invidious choice in an election year: kowtow to a powerful ally, or risk displeasure at home by ending the war with Hezbollah.
President Donald Trump has talked of a potential role for Syrian forces in fighting Hezbollah – a move that would raise alarm in Lebanon.
Unable to defeat Iran, Israel shifts its focus to Lebanon, fearing U.S. negotiations with Tehran could limit operations against Hezbollah.
The majority of Lebanese people distrusts Hezbollah, but the Israeli attacks are driving many in the south back into their fold.
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ten-day ceasefire. This may end one phase of the conflict, but it’s unlikely the violence will end.
When countries expand their military budgets or enter into conflict, the costs go far beyond equipment and munitions.
As before, however, any such move into the country would be fraught with the same risks that have bedeviled past Israeli invasions of Lebanon.
With the return of Israeli forces, the Lebanese parliament scrapped elections scheduled for May. The move is a recurring theme in the country’s fractured politics.
The resumption of war between Hezbollah and Israel has raised the prospect of an occupation of southern Lebanon.
Israel wants to avoid a repeat of its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon, while Lebanon wants to avoid imploding.
Hezbollah’s entry into the current war followed the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The group has long been aligned with the Islamic Republic.
Ongoing conflict, particularly in a three-month period in late 2024, caused widespread environmental destruction and the spread of toxic materials.
Since the start of the truce on Nov. 27, 2024, there have been thousands of Israeli violations inside Lebanese territory, while Hezbollah has yet to disarm.
For decades, Lebanon has been torn apart by internal division and external conflict. There may currently be a narrow window for a different future.
‘Bunker buster’ bombs and Tomahawk missiles struck three targets, with President Donald Trump saying that Iran’s nuclear program had been ‘completely and fully obliterated.’
A shaky truce is still in place in Lebanon. But the country remains on a tenuous footing with Israeli forces in the country’s south and Hezbollah refusing to lay down arms.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has struck a serious blow to Iran’s Axis of Resistance. But weak governments in Lebanon and Jordan could fall next, creating a jihadist axis.
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