Hold your breath and make sure you vote, because the result is likely to be a squeaker.
Articles on Margin of error
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Political polls can make for dramatic headlines. But they are a snapshot of when they were taken, not a predictor of election outcomes. Follow these expert tips to make sense of the stats.
Recent political polls in New Zealand and elsewhere have consistently failed to reflect eventual outcomes. Voters and pundits alike should avoid reading them too literally.
Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
Whether you are predicting the outcome of an election or studying how effective a new drug is, there will always be some uncertainty. A margin of error is how statisticians measure that uncertainty.
Shrewd media consumers think about these three statistical pitfalls that can be the difference between a world-changing announcement and misleading hype.
Top contributors
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Professor of the Practice of Data Science, Washington University in St. Louis
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Honorary Academic in Psychology, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Professor of Statistics, University of Connecticut
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Honorary Associate Professor, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Research Associate, Public Policy Institute, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Associate Professor of Politics, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Director of the Quinnipiac Poll, Quinnipiac University