Articles on Shadow Board

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RBA governor Glenn Stevens said moderate expansion is continuing in the Australian economy. AAP Image/Lukas Coch

November 3, 2015

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at record low 2%: experts respond

Timo Henckel, Australian National University; Guay Lim, The University of Melbourne, and Richard Holden, UNSW

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2%, but said there was scope for a rate cut down the line.

The Greek debt crisis could deliver RBA Governor Glenn Stevens a bolt from the blue. Tracey Nearmy/AAP

July 6, 2015

Grexit fear aside, interest rates should hold: RBA Shadow Board

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

China’s slowing economy is a greater concern than the Greek crisis, but booming property prices mean the RBA should hold firm.

The current policy of low interest rates should end within the next six months, says the RBA Shadow Board. AAP/Dan Himbrechts

June 1, 2015

Interest rates should fall no further: RBA Shadow Board

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

Last month’s cash rate cut should not be repeated, say the majority of Reserve Bank Shadow Board members.

Australia’s rates should rise in the next six to 12 months, says the Shadow Reserve Bank. AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts

May 4, 2015

Still no clear direction for economy: RBA should hold

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

Economic data is giving a mixed picture on whether the Reserve Bank should cut rates, but on balance, RBA members should hold.

Uncertainty around Greece defaulting on debt repayments continues to dominate the global outlook. AAP/EPA/Aexandros Vlachos

April 7, 2015

Financial markets expect a cut, but RBA Shadow Board says hold

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

Financial markets have factored in a cut to Australia’s cash rate, but economists - including the CAMA Shadow Board - aren’t so sure.

Australia’s labour market is weakening, but the Shadow Board recommends no change to the cash rate. Flickr/Thami César

March 2, 2015

Labour market weakens, but RBA Shadow Board recommends against further rate cut

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

Weak labour market data has confirmed a soft economic outlook, but our Shadow Board experts believe a rate cut isn’t the answer.

The drop in oil prices, and consequently fuel costs, is driving down inflation and helping the Australian economy. Andy Rain/EPA/AAP

February 2, 2015

Interest rates decision could boil down to oil: RBA Shadow Board

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…

Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens is closely watching rising house prices. Dean Lewins/AAP

November 3, 2014

RBA’s holding pattern is likely to stay, for now

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…

With the Australian dollar continuing to fall, the local economy is expected to rebalance. Paul Miller/AAP

October 6, 2014

Falling Aussie dollar to weigh on interest rates decision

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…

Over the next twelve months, the Shadow Board members attach a 40% probability that the cash rate will need to increase, slightly more than the probability that the cash rate needs to fall. AAP

June 3, 2013

Boost growth, or counter a weaker dollar ‑ which way should the RBA go?

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

Whither the Aussie dollar? Since the RBA dropped the cash rate to 2.75% last month the Australian dollar has fallen to below 96 US cents, a depreciation of more than 7% against the US dollar. With weaker…

Despite continuing unrest in Europe - particularly Cyprus - the global economy has firmed, say Shadow Reserve Bank commentators.

April 2, 2013

RBA: rates should hold, with a gradual return to neutral

Shaun Vahey, Australian National University

The consensus of the nine members of the Shadow Board is that the Reserve Bank of Australia should leave interest rates unchanged from March at 3.00%. But the balance of risks implies rates should rise…

A blunt instrument: the case for interest rates to rise is strengthened by rising unemployment and a persistently high Australian dollar which has defied previous cuts. AAP

February 4, 2013

Rate cut unlikely, but the forward path for interest rates will be up

Shaun Vahey, Australian National University

The Shadow Reserve Board, an initiative of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) made up of eminent industry and academic economists, returns this month. Reserve Bank of Australia board…

Re-run: if the US fiscal cliff has the same feel as last year’s debt ceiling crisis, we’re not surprised…

December 27, 2012

2012, the year that was: Business and Economy

Helen Westerman, The Conversation

Different year, same crisis. Around this time last year, the United States was looking down the barrel of economic disaster with the debt ceiling. As we approach 2013, it peers over the fiscal cliff. That…

Top contributors

Timo Henckel
Associate Professor, Research School of Economics, and Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University
Shaun Vahey
Professor, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick
Richard Holden
Scientia Professor of Economics, UNSW
Guay Lim
Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne