A mathematical simulation shows why it can take so long to collect a full set of Pokémon cards.
Articles on Probability
Displaying 1 - 20 of 65 articles
Data science and machine learning algorithms can help us form probabilistic forecasts of things like sporting events.
Scientific research, artificial intelligence and modern bank security all rely on probability.
A very small advantage, a very large bankroll, and infinite patience.
Planners need more reliable projections of future sea-level rise to protect communities and ecosystems. A new method helps produce them.
We always want to find patterns in sequences of events – but often they aren’t really there.
Hold your breath and make sure you vote, because the result is likely to be a squeaker.
Modern survey research does face challenges from changes in technology and in how people live their increasingly busy lives.
If your area experiences a 1,000-year rainfall event, don’t assume that you’re off the hook for the next 999 years.
The new game, which is ranking highly on Steam, involves repeatedly clicking a banana in the hope of maybe – eventually – getting a rare ‘skin’ to trade for real money. And that’s it.
Climate modelling wields huge influence on governments and investors’ decisions. Yet, researchers point out a lack of precision.
Early writers on probability had explained how the ‘house advantage’ didn’t need to be large for a gambling enterprise to profit enormously. But gamblers and gambling operators were slow to catch on.
We crave certainty in our weather forecasts. But that’s only possible for big weather events such as cyclones and major storms. Everything else is probability.
The universe appears to be fine-tuned for life to evolve.
The best science is not always the best engineering when it comes to building codes. It’s also a problem across the US, as an engineer who works on disaster resilience explains.
What are the odds of the end of humanity? There’s no real way to know.
It’s not entirely accurate to say that you’re more likely to die in a car accident than in a plane crash. Chances are, you’re not the average person.
An epigenetic model of cancer that incorporates the concept of stochasticity could also explain why cancer risk increases with age and how biological development can be reversible.
The oldest person in the world, Kane Tanaka of Japan, died in April 2022 at 119 years. The record of Jeanne Calment of France, who died at 122, has stood for almost 25 years. Will it be beaten?
A lottery jackpot being won by 433 people in the Phillipines has raised accusations of foul play. Then again – such outcomes usually do.
Top contributors
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Associate Professor and Principal Fellow in Urban Risk and Resilience, The University of Melbourne
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Associate Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo
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Associate Professor of Mathematical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney
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Professor of Cognitive Psychology and Director of the Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW
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Emeritus Professor, University of Nottingham, (currently Vice-Chancellor at MILA University, Malaysia), University of Nottingham
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PhD Candidate, Australian National University
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Senior NCAS Research Fellow, University of Oxford
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Professor of Philosophy, Durham University
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Senior Research Scientist, South Australian Museum; Flinders University
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Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship, ESSCA School of Management
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Associate Professor, Social Innovation, CQUniversity Australia
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Technical Officer, Deakin University
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Assistant Professor of Economics, Universidad de Alicante
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Associate professor, UNSW
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Prize fellow and EPSRC research fellow in probability, University of Bath