Articles on Uncertainty

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Uncertainty is inherent in science, but communicating it effectively requires more than explaining how much error is present in graphs. Tom Werner/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Communicating uncertainty in research is hard, so we worked on how best to do it – here’s what you can watch out for

Uncertainty is part of the scientific process, and it’s not a bad thing – it’s where future discoveries can happen.
The World Uncertainty Index is a measure that tracks uncertainty across 143 nations by text mining the country-specific reports of the Economist Intelligence Unit. Skorzewiak/Shutterstock

Global uncertainty is the new normal. Here’s why institutional legitimacy and resilience is crucial

Geopolitical and economic uncertainty topped the G7 summit agenda. The world needs strong, inclusive international institutions more than ever.
In modern psychology, wisdom is made of specific mental processes, and includes exercising intellectual humility, recognizing uncertainty and taking different perspectives. (Getty images/Unsplash)

Why you’re wise on Tuesday and foolish on Sunday: Practising wisdom in uncertain times

Wisdom fluctuates. New longitudinal evidence suggests wise reasoning is a trainable toolkit —not a trait — and repeated distanced self-reflection can strengthen it in daily life.
The sum is greater than the parts when researchers build an ensemble from multiple coordinated but independent models. Matteo Chinazzi

Pooling multiple models during COVID‑19 pandemic provided more reliable projections about an uncertain future

Policymakers rely on models during uncertain times to figure out how their choices could affect the future. Over the pandemic, an ensemble of many COVID-19 models outperformed any one alone.

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